Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

Characterization of distribution of pesticide residues in crop units

The characteristic features of distribution of pesticide residues in crop units and single sample increments were studied based on more than 19,000 residue concentrations measured in root vegetables, leafy vegetables, small-, medium- and large-size fruits representing 20 different crops and 46 pesticides. Log-normal, gamma and Weibull distributions were found to provide the best fit for the relative frequency distributions of individual residue data sets. The overall best fit was provided by lognormal distribution. The relative standard deviation of residues (CV) in various crops ranged from 15–170%. The 100–120 residue values being in one data set was too small to identify potential effects of various factors such as the chemical and physical properties of pesticides and the nature of crops. Therefore, the average of CV values, obtained from individual data sets, were calculated and considered to be the best estimate for the likely variability of unit crop residues for treated field (CV = 0.8) and market samples (CV = 1.1), respectively. The larger variation of residues in market samples was attributed to the potential mixing of lots and varying proportion of non-detects. The expectable average variability of residues in composited samples can be calculated from the typical values taking into account the sample size.     

Limitations in the determination of maximum residue limits and highest residues of pesticides: Part I

The pesticide usages are controlled by comparing residue concentrations in treated commodities to legally permitted maximum levels (MRLs) determined based on supervised trials designed to reflect likely maximum residues occurring in practice following authorised use. The number of trials available may significantly affect the accuracy of estimated maximum residues. We conducted a study with synthetic lognormal distributions with mean of 1 and standard deviations of 0.8 and 1.0, which reflect the residue distributions observed in practice. The likely residues in samples were modelled by drawing random samples of size 3, 5, 10 and 25 from the synthetic populations. The results indicate that the estimations of highest residues (HR), used for calculation of short-term intake, and the MRLs, serving as legal limits, are very uncertain based on 3–5 trials indicated by the calculated HR_0.975/HR_0.025 and MRL_0.975/MRL_0.025 ratios of 12 and 9, and 13 and 10, respectively, which question the suitability of such trials for the intended purpose. As the 95% range of HR and MRL rapidly decreases with number of trials, ideally ≥15 but minimum 6–8 trials should be used for estimation of HR and MRL according to the current typical practice of Codex Alimentarius.     

Perfluorinated chemicals in selected residents of the American continent

Perfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) are used in multiple consumer products. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), the most widely studied PFCs, may be potential developmental, reproductive, and systemic toxicants. Although PFCs seem to be ubiquitous contaminants found both in humans and animals, geographic differences may exist in human exposure patterns to PFCs. We measured 11 PFCs in 23 pooled serum samples collected in the United States from 1990 through 2002, and in serum samples collected in 2003 from 44 residents from Trujillo, Peru. PFOS and PFOA were detected in all the pooled samples; perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) was detected in 21. Median concentrations were 31.1 micrograms per liter (mug/l, PFOS), 11.6 microg/l (PFOA), and 2 microg/l (PFHxS). The 90th percentile concentrations of PFCs in the 44 Peruvian residents were 0.7 microg/l (PFOS), 0.1 microg/l (PFOA), and <0.3 microg/l (PFHxS). The frequencies of detection were 20% (PFOS), 25% (PFOA), and 9% (PFHxS). The frequent detection of selected PFCs in the pooled samples from the United States and the lack of clear concentration trends based on a year of collection suggest a sustained widespread exposure to these compounds among US residents, at least since the 1990s. By contrast, the much lower frequency of detection and concentration ranges of PFCs in Peru suggest a lower exposure of Peruvians to PFCs compared with North Americans. Genetic variability, diet, lifestyle, or a combination of all these may contribute to the different patterns of human exposure to PFCs in the United States and Peru.     

Matrix effect in case of purification of oily waters by membrane separation combined with pre-ozonation

In the present study, oil in water emulsions (c_oil?=?100 ppm; d_{oil droplets}?<?2 μm) was purified with ozonation followed by microfiltration using polyethersulfone (PES) membrane (d_pore?=?0.2 μm). The effects of pre-ozonation on membrane microfiltration were investigated in detail both in case of ultrapure and model groundwater matrices, applying different durations (0, 5, 10, and 20 min) of pre-ozonation. Simultaneously, the effects of added inorganic water components on the combined method were investigated. Size distribution of oil droplets, zeta potentials, fluxes, and purification efficiencies were measured and fouling mechanisms were described in all cases. It was found that the matrix significantly affected the size distribution and adherence ability of oil droplets onto the membrane surface, therefore fouling mechanisms also were strongly dependent on the matrix. In case of low salt concentration, the total resistance was caused mainly by reversible resistance, which could be significantly reduced (eliminated) by pre-ozonation. In case of model groundwater matrix, nearly twice higher total resistance was measured, and irreversible resistance was dominant, because of the higher adhesion ability of the oil droplets onto the membrane surface. In this case, pre-ozonation resulted in much lower irreversible, but higher reversible resistance. Increased duration of pre-ozonation raised the total resistance and reduced the elimination efficiency (due to fragmented oil droplets and water soluble oxidation by-products) in both cases, therefore short pre-ozonation can be recommended both from economic and performance aspects.     

Effects of oil sands tailings compounds and harsh weather on mortality rates, growth and detoxification efforts in nestling tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor)

Oil sands mining companies in Alberta, Canada, are evaluating the feasibility of using wetlands to detoxify oil sands process material (OSPM) as a reclamation strategy. Reproductive success, nestling growth, survival and ethoxyresorufin-o-deethylase (EROD) activity were measured in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) on experimental wetlands. In 2003, harsh weather triggered a widespread nestling die-off. Mortality rates on the control site reached 48% while they ranged from 59% to 100% on reclaimed wetlands. The odds of dying on the most process-affected sites were more than ten times higher than those on the control site. In 2004, weather was less challenging. Mortality rates were low, but nestlings on reclaimed wetlands weighed less than those on the control site, and had higher EROD activity. These results indicate that compared with reference birds, nestlings from OSPM-impacted wetlands may be less able to withstand additional stressors, which could decrease their chances of survival after fledging.     

Fouling mitigation and cleanability of TiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> photocatalyst-modified PVDF membranes during ultrafiltration of model oily wastewater with different salt contents

In the present study, TiO₂-coated ultrafiltration membranes were prepared and used for oily water filtration (droplet size <?2 μm). The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of different salt contents on fouling and filtration properties of neat and TiO₂-coated membranes during oil-in-water emulsion filtration. The effect of the TiO₂ coating on the flux, surface free energy, and retention values was measured and compared with the neat membrane values. The cleanability of the fouled TiO₂-coated membranes by UV irradiation was also investigated by measuring flux recovery and contact angles, and the chemical changes during cleaning were characterized by ATR-IR. It was found that increasing the salt content of the model wastewaters, oil-in-water emulsions, increased the zeta potential and the size of the droplets. The presence of the TiO₂ coating decreases the membrane fouling during oily emulsion filtration compared to the neat membrane, due to the hydrophilicity of the coating regardless of the salt content of the emulsions. The neat and coated membrane oil retention was similar, 96?±?2%. The coated membrane can be effectively cleaned with UV irradiation without additional chemicals and a significant flux recovery can be achieved. Monitoring of the cleaning process by following the membrane surface wettability and ATR-IR measurements showed that the recovery of flux does not mean the total elimination of the oil layer from the membrane surface.     

Nature of the field-to-field distribution of pesticide residues

The supervised trial datasets (1950), consisting of a minimum of five residue values and selected by the experts of FAO/WHO Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues for recommending maximum residue levels between 1997 and 2011, were evaluated to obtain information on the typical spread of residue values in individual datasets. The typical relative standard deviation, CV, of field-to-field variation of pesticide residues was about 80%. The spread of residues in datasets is independent from the chemical structure of pesticides, residue level, pre-harvest interval and number of values in the datasets. The CV ranges within the Codex commodity groups and between groups overlapped and their difference were not statistically significant. The number of residues below the limit of quantification (LOQ) affects the CV at various extents depending on the ratio of LOQ/R _mean. The combined uncertainty of the highest residue in a dataset significantly affects the CV of the dataset. The lowest and intermediate ones have less influence. The residues in different fields receiving the same treatment vary within large range: 55%, 72%, 78%, 86% and 89% of the 25,766 residues values were, respectively, within 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 times the median value of the corresponding dataset.     

Reference criteria for the identification of accident scenarios in the framework of land use planning

Land use planning (LUP) around industrial sites at risk of major accidents requires the application of sound approaches in the selection of credible accident scenarios. In fact, the ‘technical’ phase of LUP is based on the identification and assessment of relevant accident scenarios. An improper choice of scenarios may critically affect both the ‘technical’ phase of risk assessment and the following ‘policy’ phase concerning decision making on land-use restrictions and/or licensing. The present study introduces a procedure aimed at the systematic identification of reference accident scenarios to be used in the gathering of technical data on potential major accidents, which is a necessary step for LUP around Seveso sites. Possible accident scenarios are generated by an improved version of the MIMAH methodology (Methodology for the Identification of Major Accident Hazards). The accident scenarios are then assessed for LUP relevance considering severity, frequency and time scale criteria. The influence of prevention and mitigation barriers is also taken into account. Two applications are used to demonstrate the proposed procedure. In both case-studies, the proposed methodology proved successful in producing consistent sets of reference scenarios.